Iran’s Future after Khomeini

Ayatollah Khomeini is 78 now and in poor health as well.

Ayatollah Khomeini is ill according to the reports

Earlier in January, this year Iran experienced the biggest dissidence since Green Revolution in 2009. Although, it shacked the structure of this clerical republic but it couldn’t throw massive impacts politically. Similarly, the movement had no clear goal or political objective to go for. Henceforth, the momentum of dissidents lost after couple of days. The civil society was behind the turmoil demanding political openness and freedom of activities.

Iran severely cracked down the protest by coercion. The demand for change is still not appreciated by Iran and its security forces and they are likely to tackle any such sort of objection in near future. But, there is some fortuity for change at the top. The biggest barrier and restriction in the way of change has been the Supreme leader Ayatollah Khomeini. Comparatively, this man has sponsored the cautious political approach and curbed the activities. But, the man is 78 now and is in the condition of poor health.  The question is what will happen to Iran if their Supreme leader dies?

Picking up the next leader

A three-member council will instantly take charge of their duties in case of Khomeini’s death or inability to perform functions. Iranian President, the head of Judiciary and a scholar of Guardian council are contained under the three-member council. They will take care of the responsibilities of supreme leader until the Assembly of Experts, announces the successor of Ayatollah Khomeini.

The Assembly members are elected by Iranians for the tenure of eight years.  There are basically three groups in which the assembly is divided: Pragmatists, Independents and Hardliners. As can be seen, the Independents seem important in choosing the succession for the reason that their vote can change the outcome. Additionally, many other factors can influence the process.

Shall we expect the Shift?

Iran is a clerical administrated state for about 40 years till now and the office of Supreme leader is a place of radical Muslims. Although, he advised his assembly that his successor must be a revolutionary and not a timid but assembly seems to be influenced by conservative approaches.

Hassan Rouhani, the President of Iran is a firm aspirant and candidate for the leadership. 

Hassan Rouhani is in power till 2020

Additionally, the chances of even higher if Khomeini dies for the reason that Rouhani would still be in his office till 2020, when his term expires. Similarly, as a member of the assembly of experts, the president has got potential to put leverage over other members.

Meanwhile, Iranian people who want to moderate their state from theocracy to democracy would still prefer him over a hardliner despite the fact they know Rouhani will not push up the change in radical setup.

Rouhani wants his country to be liberated from western influence yet, he wants to cooperate with them economically. To sum up, he wants his country to be an Islamic version of China with strong economy and military. By and large, if he makes up himself up for the task and gets the status of Supreme leader, Iran will experience the extensive transformation in every aspect.